Consumption and GDP, by Scott Sumner

Robert Barro argues that GDP is mismeasured: That is, the standard concepts of national income and net product count net investment once when it occurs and include the same present value again when adding up the future returns realized on this investment. Therefore, in the steady state, national income involves precisely double-counting of net investment. […]

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Manufacturing Recessions Vs Real Recessions: How Much Lead Time Do You Expect?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Manufacturing matters more than most think. A very reliable recession indicator is flashing rapidly. Caroline Baum, one of my favorite economic writers and author of “Just What I Said” penned an excellent column yesterday: Manufacturing isn’t the whole economy, but it’s important enough to get the Fed’s attention. Manufacturing output […]

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The Death of Capitalism, Redux for 2019

“What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life. There’s something wrong with the world. You don’t know what it is, but it’s there, like a splinter in your mind, driving you mad” — Morpheus About 10 years ago, I wrote an article about the death of capitalism. […]

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Q2 Earnings Results Update + 2020

by T.J. Hayes via HedgeFundTips.com Data Source: Factset The more I look at the earnings estimates for 2020, the more this is starting to look like 2015-2017.  2015-2016 S&P 500 EPS (Earnings Per Share) was basically flat ($118.75, $119.31) as are 2018-2019 ($161.48, $165.64 est). However, if you look at the jump in earnings for […]

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Someone At Morgan Stanley Kept Giving Epstein’s Foundation Allocations To The Hottest IPOs

Accused pedophile Jeffrey Epstein’s Gratitude America Ltd. foundation somehow kept getting stock allocations in more than 40 underwritten offerings by Morgan Stanley, according to Barron’s.  Morgan Stanley led all of the offerings in question and was the sole underwriter on a dozen of them. They included IPOs of Roku and secondary offerings from companies like Tribune […]

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