International Man: The world has become increasingly unfree. Recently, the global pandemic has justified all kinds of draconian measures by governments.
The latest economic data suggest the US recovery stalled. One look at the Citi US econ surprise index, as of this week, shows the recovery ran out of steam last month. A fiscal cliff is already underway, set to enter the second week on Friday (Aug. 14) as tens of millions of Americans are unemployed and have yet to receive their stimulus checks.
As noted earlier, silver is crashing as much as 15% today, a plunge which if it had spread to stocks would prompt a panic at the Fed and an injection of at least several trillion. The fact that precious metals do not need a rescue from the Fed – and in fact anything the Fed does do will only send them higher – is probably worth its own take, but for now we will simply look at how we got here, where we are going and update details on the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and Bank of Canada (BoC) balance sheets, as well as on the programs implemented by each central bank.
As Bloomberg’s Mark Cranfield noted this evening, small reversals are just not gold’s style after a major advance (typically somewhere between a 15% and 20% drop is more common), and the selling pressure on precious metals has continued as Japan and then China opens this evening with Silver futures back at a $23 handle and Gold futures back below $1900.
Even in the most obvious of circumstances – the Fed printing trillions of dollars within the span of one fiscal quarter – Paul Krugman seems unable to make the basic link between purchasing power, the money supply and the price of gold, and refuses to even consider the recent worldview reversals in such prominent former deflationistas as Russell Napier, Albert Edwards and Russell Clark (all discussed previously).
Most of us have never experienced anything like this in our entire lifetimes. Fear of COVID-19, endless civil unrest in major U.S. cities and a whole host of other factors have combined to plunge us into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. On Friday, the Labor Department announced that the unemployment rate in the U.S. fell to just 10.2 percent last month, and if that number was actually accurate that would be pretty good news.
Real Rates (Inflation-Nominal rates) are currently at -1% levels and it seems they may go down even lower. But they have been negative before during the 1940s in the post WW2 Era and in the 1970s STAGFLATION.
It is only appropriate that on the day Ball Corporation sold a bond with the lowest “high” yield ever for a junk bond, at 2.875%…
As discussed previously in “Insanely Stupid,” we noted the market remained confined to its consolidation channel, but the bullish bias was to the upside.As discussed previously in “Insanely Stupid,” we noted the market remained confined to its consolidation channel, but the bullish bias was to the upside.
2020 has seen a pandemic inflict enormous human and economic cost. In 2Q, the global economy contracted by the largest amount on record and, as autumn approaches, major questions around returning to school, work and other aspects of daily life remain.